Shock load shedding forecasts for South Africa

Shock load shedding forecasts for South Africa

Load shedding in South Africa increased by 38% in 2021 with more than 2,400 gigawatt hours (GWhs) shed, says professional services firm PwC.

This is the equivalent of an estimated 1,136 hours of power outages – equal to three hours per calendar day, the group said in a research note this week.

Based on these figures, PwC estimates the adverse impact of load-shedding in 2021 was a reduction in real GDP growth of up to 3.1 percentage points, costing the economy up to 400,000 potential jobs.

“According to the Presidency, South Africa has a shortfall of around 4,000MW of electricity generating power. It is possible that this shortfall is significantly larger given that Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) was revised downward from 72% to 63% in its latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (2022-2026),” PwC said.

Looking ahead, Eskom chief executive Andre de Ruyter said recently the power utility expects 29 days of load-shedding during February and March and a total of 61 days during the April-August period.

In both cases, this suggests load shedding every third day, PwC said.

“A country’s power system should supply cost-effective electricity to customers in an efficient, reliable, and …

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